Market Outlook

Winter 2025

Market Outlook – Investors enjoyed positive returns during 2024 as solid economic growth and moderate inflation, combined with easier global monetary policies to support risk markets and push asset values higher once again. While our team expects strong returns for bonds and stocks again this year, volatility should remain elevated as fiscal and monetary policy evolve throughout the year under the new presidential administration. With the Fed easing monetary policy by a full 1% since our last outlook, the yield curve is once again positively sloped, and, in our view, rates are relatively attractive. While we forecast cash returns in the 4% range in the year ahead, we expect cash to lag fixed income returns. Fixed income returns are expected in the 4.50-6% range given bonds’ income advantage and potential for price appreciation as we forecast slightly lower interest rates in 2025. READ MORE

Archives

Market Outlook 2024

While we expect U.S. economic growth and inflation to moderate in the year ahead, the probability of a recession has increased somewhat in our view. The market was overly concerned last year that

Market Outlook 2023

As we enter the second half of 2023, the economy has remained surprisingly resilient despite the massive tightening in monetary policy and higher borrowing costs.

Market Outlook 2022

While the market is increasingly attractive on an absolute and relative basis, it has been an extremely challenging performance environment so far this year.