INVESTMENT ADVISORY SERVICES: FEATURED ECONOMIC INDICATOR
Low Inflation Could Change Fed’s Plans
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July grew only 1.7% over the past year. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy costs, also grew at 1.7%.
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INVESTMENT ADVISORY SERVICES: FEATURED ECONOMIC INDICATOR
Outlook Differs Between Stocks and Bonds
The stock market continues to move higher on stronger consumer and business confidence, driven in part by President Trump’s pro-growth policies. The bond market is sending the opposite message and reflects significantly less optimism about economic growth.
INVESTMENT ADVISORY SERVICES: FEATURED ECONOMIC INDICATOR
Bond Market Battles Fed
In June, Fed policymakers lifted the Fed Funds Rate to a range of 1.00-1.25% and projected one more increase this year and three more hikes in 2018. Traders in the market for fed funds futures don’t agree. They see a 57% probability that the Fed lifts rates again in 2017.
INVESTMENT ADVISORY SERVICES: FEATURED ECONOMIC INDICATOR
GDP Revised Up
Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was revised up more than expected to 1.2% from 0.7%. Economists expected GDP to be revised up to only 0.9%. While GDP remained low compared to the last two quarters, business investment was higher in the 1st quarter.
INVESTMENT ADVISORY SERVICES: FEATURED ECONOMIC INDICATOR
Personal Spending Slows
For two consecutive months, personal spending has been flat on a month-over-month basis. The story has been similar for retail sales and retail sales excluding auto sales. One positive note is that excluding autos, retail sales picked up in March.
INVESTMENT ADVISORY SERVICES: FEATURED ECONOMIC INDICATOR
Fed Leading Interest Rates Higher
The Federal Reserve has increased interest rates three times since December 2015 by a total of 75 basis points including two hikes since December 2016. Current and projected employment and inflation data as well as the Fed’s own projections suggest that the Fed will continue to raise rates in the coming months and years.
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