FEATURED MARKET DATA
Supply Shock Drives Up Oil and Gas Prices
The closing of the Strait of Hormuz has removed roughly 20 million barrels per day of crude and refined oil products from global trade. This supply shock has increased oil prices sharply to over $100 per barrel with gas prices also rising above $4.00 per gallon nationwide ahead of the summer travel season. This initial increase is likely to create near-term price pressure as higher transportation and electricity costs flow through supply chains into other goods and services.
by Laura Fox FEATURED MARKET DATA
Strong Earnings Season Supports Markets
Earnings have taken center stage as Q4 reporting nears completion. S&P 500 earnings growth is tracking in the mid-teens year over year, marking a fifth consecutive quarter of double-digit gains, with strength led by AI-driven Technology and Industrials and supported by broad-based revenue growth across most major sectors.
by Laura Fox FEATURED MARKET DATA
Washington D.C. Impacting Markets
Financial markets appear to be increasingly impacted by developments in Washington D.C. Fixed income and equity markets finished higher for the month despite periods of elevated volatility. While there were multiple important headlines surrounding the Fed in January, Trump’s nomination of former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair is gaining significant market attention.
by Laura Fox FEATURED MARKET DATA
Labor Market and the Fed
Fed member forecasts released following the September Fed meeting revealed a Fed split on the pace and volume of additional rate cuts. Some members believed fewer cuts were required given signs of stabilizing employment and persistent inflation.
by Laura Fox FEATURED MARKET DATA
Stocks Climb on Strong Earnings and AI Investments
U.S. equities continued to climb in October. Big tech was mostly higher as the AI growth narrative remains a strong tailwind. AI and chip-related deals and partnerships added to momentum as multiple companies announced partnerships with OpenAI and Nvidia.
by Laura Fox FEATURED MARKET DATA
The Fed and a Government Shutdown
Lawmakers failed to reach an agreement by the end of the day on September 30, resulting in a government shutdown that has furloughed hundreds of thousands of government workers. There are at least three important pieces of information to know about a government shutdown.
by Laura Fox FEATURED MARKET DATA
S&P 500 Earnings Expectations Rising
With 98% of S&P 500 companies reporting actual 2nd quarter results as of August 31st, earnings per share (EPS) growth has totaled nearly 12% year-over-year. This represents the third consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings growth. The “Magnificent 7” continues to lead the way with earnings growth of 26.6% in the 2nd quarter.
by Laura Fox FEATURED MARKET DATA
Rates Fluctuate on Divergent Data
The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield, a commonly used indicator of market expectations of the fed funds rate, moved higher in July. This occurred as markets pushed back expectations for Fed rate cuts. Contributors to higher yields included somewhat lower than expected Core CPI, stronger labor market data and larger growth in retail sales.
by Laura Fox FEATURED MARKET DATA
Drivers of Bond Yields
Term premium is the additional compensation investors require to hold longer-dated bonds and it is a primary driver of the upward-sloping yield curve. Treasury rates, considered the risk-free benchmark for each maturity, typically reflect the average expected federal funds rate over that period plus the term premium for bearing duration risk.
by Laura Fox FEATURED MARKET DATA
Strong Quarterly Earnings Growth
With first quarter earnings season nearly complete, S&P 500 companies reported 12.9% earnings growth. This was the second straight quarter of double-digit growth. Earnings growth breadth was strong with 8 of 11 sectors growing. However, the Magnificent 7 continued to lead including strong growth from Nvidia.
by Laura Fox 