FEATURED MARKET DATA
Stronger Data Help Lift Rates
Economic data was mostly stronger than expected in June. The Citi Economic Surprise Index, which measures the differences in actual and forecasted economic data, rose in June as data such as retail sales, consumer confidence and durable goods orders were all stronger than expected.
by Laura Fox FEATURED MARKET DATA
Persistent Inflation
While CPI and Core CPI have steadily declined over the past year, wage growth has remained elevated. Following a November 2022 speech by Federal Reserve Chair Powell, many economists and market participants have focused on the impact of wages on non-housing services inflation.
by Laura Fox FEATURED MARKET DATA
Fed Nearing End of Hikes
The “dot plots” released by the Fed in March depicted their plans to hike rates one more time this year and then hold rates steady. The Fed has also stated they remain data dependent and thus Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, is an important data point.
by Laura Fox FEATURED MARKET DATA
Like a Lion
The rates market roared in March as Treasury yields rose and fell sharply in response to economic data and market developments. The 2-year Treasury yield began the month near 4.8%, climbed to over 5% and dipped below 4% during the month.
by Laura Fox FEATURED MARKET DATA
Treasury Curve Further Inverts
The Treasury curve inverted more deeply in February as 2-year Treasury yields rose 61 basis points. The increase was caused by expectations for additional rate hikes due to stronger inflation and employment reports during the month.
by Laura Fox FEATURED MARKET DATA
Strong Bond Returns
Bonds generated strong returns in January as U.S. Treasury yields declined modestly and credit spreads declined. A large spike in market yields in 2022 boosted income for bondholders, which aids returns.
by Laura Fox FEATURED MARKET DATA
Tighter Financial Conditions Slow Growth
During 2022, global central banks tightened monetary policy in an effort to combat heightened inflation. This tightened financial conditions and has resulted in manufacturers slowing production globally.
by Laura Fox FEATURED MARKET DATA
Fed and Inflation Driving Markets
Stocks rallied in November on softer inflation data and expectations for the Fed to slow the pace of rate hikes beginning in December. Together, the news helped lift the S&P 500 index 5.38% for the month.
by Laura Fox FEATURED MARKET DATA
Inflation Pressures Cool Slightly
The market widely anticipates the Federal Reserve will hike rates by another 75 basis points on November 2. The question on the market’s mind is what they will do in December and what will be the terminal Fed Funds rate.
by Laura Fox FEATURED MARKET DATA
Seeking Income
A plummet in bond yields in 2020 sent many investors on a search for yield. A relatively attractive dividend yield on stocks provided one source of income. As investors gravitated toward dividend paying stocks, equity indices such as the Russell 1000 Value index outperformed more growth oriented indices.
by Laura Fox 