FEATURED MARKET DATA
Stocks Down as Volatility Rose
Volatility trended up during November even as equity markets generally climbed most of the month. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), a measure of expected stock market volatility surged to 27. Inflation and supply chain concerns weighed on investors, contributing to volatility.
by Matt Orseske 
FEATURED MARKET DATA
Fed Expectations Pulled Forward
During October, markets priced in an earlier first rate hike by the Federal Reserve and a quicker initial path of hikes thereafter. Markets are pricing in at least two rate hikes in 2022 with the first in July. Rates in the 2-year to 5-year part of the Treasury yield curve rose abruptly as a result.
by Laura Fox
FEATURED MARKET DATA
Stock Valuations Level
U.S. equities fell in September with the S&P 500 index posting its first decline (-4.7%) since January (-1.0%). Factors that contributed to the weak performance included concerns around Fed tapering, the complex legislative environment, persistent supply constraints, rising energy costs and concerns about a potential default of Chinese property giant Evergrande.
by Laura Fox
FEATURED MARKET DATA
Retail Sales Lower in July
U.S. retail sales, a gauge for consumer spending fell 1.1% in July following an upwardly revised 0.7% increase in June. Underlying data suggests that consumers are beginning to curb spending on goods in favor of services following the reopening of the economy. Sales dropped across various categories including autos, clothing, sporting goods, and furniture.
by Laura Fox FEATURED MARKET DATA
Stimulus Spurs Economic Growth
The US economy grew at an annualized real rate of 6.5% in the second quarter. While strong, results were below expectations of 8.4%. Personal consumption of 11.8% led GDP growth despite a decline in direct economic impact payments to households. Other programs including loans and grants to businesses increased in the second quarter.
by Matt Orseske
FEATURED MARKET DATA
Is Inflation Transitory?
It seems inflation is on everyone’s mind. Consumers are seeing prices rise most everywhere – from the gas pump, to the grocery store and home prices. Year-to-date, CPI has risen 3.3% in 2021 compared to 1.2% in 2019 and -0.8% in 2020. Many members of the Federal Reserve are also talking about inflation risks. The base case for most economists is that rising inflation is transitory and related to supply-chain bottlenecks and low prior year comparables.
by Laura Fox
FEATURED MARKET DATA
Reopening Stocks Outperform
Value stocks outperformed growth stocks in May, a trend which has persisted throughout 2021. Strong performance for value stocks is a reversal of last year’s trend when growth stocks, including technology shares, soared. A surge this year in business activity is driving up shares of more economically sensitive sectors such as manufacturing, energy and materials.
by Laura Fox
FEATURED MARKET DATA
Strong First Quarter Earnings
Publicly traded companies are reporting strong first quarter earnings. The fast recovery in corporate earnings is helping to justify soaring stock prices since markets bottomed in March 2020. As of April 30, stronger than expected earnings had been reported by 87% of S&P 500 companies who had reported earnings, according to market data firm Refinitiv.
by Laura Fox
FEATURED MARKET DATA
Rally in Small vs. Large Cap Stocks
Small cap stocks surged by an astounding 90% in the twelve months ending March 31 and have significantly outperformed large cap stocks. Only part of this can be explained by recent outperformance of value stocks compared to growth stocks.
by Laura Fox
FEATURED MARKET DATA
What is Driving Yields Higher?
Federal Reserve officials are actively working to reassure markets that the recent climb in market yields represents improving expectations for economic growth rather than future inflation. It is clear that the rise in rates is driven by multiple factors ranging from fundamentals supporting stronger growth to technical factors such as banks hedging mortgage portfolios and increased Treasury supply.
by Laura Fox 