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What is Driving Yields Higher?
Federal Reserve officials are actively working to reassure markets that the recent climb in market yields represents improving expectations for economic growth rather than future inflation. It is clear that the rise in rates is driven by multiple factors ranging from fundamentals supporting stronger growth to technical factors such as banks hedging mortgage portfolios and increased Treasury supply.
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Spread Sectors Add Income
Most sectors of the fixed income market offer Option Adjusted Spreads (OAS) which aid income. OAS represents the yield of a security or sector of the market in excess of a US Treasury security with the same maturity, adjusted for any embedded option such as a call option.
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Holiday Stress
Two main factors impacted consumers in December: 1) some regions of the U.S. saw increased restrictions due to rising Covid-19 cases and hospitalizations following the Thanksgiving holiday and 2) Congress spent most of the month in a standoff over whether to pass a new round of stimulus.
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Stocks Soar Despite Virus Risks
U.S. stock prices soared in November with news that several Covid-19 vaccine candidates may be highly effective coupled with a reduction in U.S. election uncertainty. Stocks were also aided by stronger corporate profits. Together, these factors propelled the S&P 500 index up nearly 11 % following two consecutive months of decline.
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Markets Loathe Uncertainty
U.S. stocks as measured by the S&P 500 index declined for the second consecutive month in October. Market volatility has been heightened based on rising COVID-19 cases domestically and abroad, negotiations for additional fiscal stimulus, and uncertainty surrounding the U.S. election.
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Corporate Bond Issuance Surges
U.S. companies issued more debt through the first 8 months of 2020 than in all of 2019 and total outstanding debt sits at record highs. A recent Moody’s report focused on the lengthening maturities of newly issued debt at historically low yields and concluded this enhances financial flexibility.
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New Fed Policy Addresses Low Inflation
Faced with lower current inflation and inflation expectations, the Federal Reserve announced changes to its monetary policy strategy in August. This shift in policy lessens the Fed’s practice of preemptively raising rates to avoid higher inflation and will likely lead to lower rates for longer.
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Massive Purchases by Federal Reserve
Following a period of extreme market stress in March, the Federal Reserve reopened and created several programs aimed at boosting liquidity across a range of markets.
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Corporate Spreads Tighten
Bond markets showed continuing signs of improvement in June as corporate spreads (the difference in yields between corporate bond indices and Treasury yields) declined for investment grade bonds.
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What Treasury Bonds Tell Us
U.S. Treasury yields diverged with equities in May as stock markets soared while bond yields remained relatively stable.
