Summer 2024
Market Outlook – While we expect U.S. economic growth and inflation to moderate in the year ahead, the probability of a recession has increased somewhat in our view. The market was overly concerned last year that monetary policy was going to tip the US economy into recession. Conversely, current consensus seems overly optimistic on a soft-landing scenario despite increasing economic and policy uncertainty. We have entered the fun world of “data dependency” as the Fed likes to put it. The capital markets are in mode where we experience step function pricing on new relevant data. As a result, advance positioning will prove especially important in the year ahead to maximize returns and reduce risk. READ MORE
Winter 2023-2024
Market Outlook – As we put the finishing touches on another wild year for the global capital markets, we expect positive returns to continue in 2024, despite our expectations for a slowing economy. We find ourselves in a market shaped by both challenges and opportunities. The economic recovery from COVID has been nothing short of amazing, bolstered by innovative solutions and the adaptability of industry and businesses within every segment of the economy. Despite significant monetary policy tightening and the associated move higher in interest rates, the market has performed much better than people expected coming into this year. While equity performance has been particularly strong, the fixed income markets have performed admirably as well, especially the past several months as sentiment turned. READ MORE
