FEATURED MARKET DATA
The Fed and a Government Shutdown
Lawmakers failed to reach an agreement by the end of the day on September 30, resulting in a government shutdown that has furloughed hundreds of thousands of government workers. There are at least three important pieces of information to know about a government shutdown.
by Laura Fox FEATURED MARKET DATA
S&P 500 Earnings Expectations Rising
With 98% of S&P 500 companies reporting actual 2nd quarter results as of August 31st, earnings per share (EPS) growth has totaled nearly 12% year-over-year. This represents the third consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings growth. The “Magnificent 7” continues to lead the way with earnings growth of 26.6% in the 2nd quarter.
by Laura Fox FEATURED MARKET DATA
Rates Fluctuate on Divergent Data
The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield, a commonly used indicator of market expectations of the fed funds rate, moved higher in July. This occurred as markets pushed back expectations for Fed rate cuts. Contributors to higher yields included somewhat lower than expected Core CPI, stronger labor market data and larger growth in retail sales.
by Laura Fox FEATURED MARKET DATA
Drivers of Bond Yields
Term premium is the additional compensation investors require to hold longer-dated bonds and it is a primary driver of the upward-sloping yield curve. Treasury rates, considered the risk-free benchmark for each maturity, typically reflect the average expected federal funds rate over that period plus the term premium for bearing duration risk.
by Laura Fox FEATURED MARKET DATA
Strong Quarterly Earnings Growth
With first quarter earnings season nearly complete, S&P 500 companies reported 12.9% earnings growth. This was the second straight quarter of double-digit growth. Earnings growth breadth was strong with 8 of 11 sectors growing. However, the Magnificent 7 continued to lead including strong growth from Nvidia.
by Laura Fox FEATURED MARKET DATA
Stocks Gain From Early April Lows
Returns for U.S. stocks were mostly lower in April and volatility was high, particularly early in the month. Headlines, largely related to evolving tariff policy, broadly drove stock prices up and down as correlations across stocks were high. The S&P 500 closed below 5,000 on April 8th as uncertainty and market volatility peaked.
by Laura Fox FEATURED MARKET DATA
Longer Treasuries Outperforming Money Market Returns
Monthly returns for the 3-Month Treasury Bill, often a benchmark for money market returns, have slowly declined over the past year as the Federal Reserve cut short-term interest rates. Meanwhile, evolving economic conditions have created volatility in longer term Treasury yields and returns.
by Laura Fox FEATURED MARKET DATA
Sentiment Weakens in February
U.S. Economic data reported in February generally weakened as shown by the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index turning negative during the month. At the same time, consumer confidence softened, led by a decrease in the Expectations component of the index.
by Laura Fox FEATURED MARKET DATA
Stocks Turn Higher in January
U.S. equities ended higher in January following December declines as markets expressed relief from no immediate actions on tariffs. However, news on possible Mexico, Canada and China tariffs was quickly developing near month-end and in the first days of February.
by Laura Fox FEATURED MARKET DATA
Steepening Yield Curve
The Federal Reserve cut rates by 0.25% as expected in December to a range of 4.25-4.50%, yet longer-term yields rose for the month. The shift up in longer term yields was due in part to a hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve.
by Laura Fox 