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Like a Lion
The rates market roared in March as Treasury yields rose and fell sharply in response to economic data and market developments. The 2-year Treasury yield began the month near 4.8%, climbed to over 5% and dipped below 4% during the month.
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Treasury Curve Further Inverts
The Treasury curve inverted more deeply in February as 2-year Treasury yields rose 61 basis points. The increase was caused by expectations for additional rate hikes due to stronger inflation and employment reports during the month.
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Strong Bond Returns
Bonds generated strong returns in January as U.S. Treasury yields declined modestly and credit spreads declined. A large spike in market yields in 2022 boosted income for bondholders, which aids returns.
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Tighter Financial Conditions Slow Growth
During 2022, global central banks tightened monetary policy in an effort to combat heightened inflation. This tightened financial conditions and has resulted in manufacturers slowing production globally.
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Fed and Inflation Driving Markets
Stocks rallied in November on softer inflation data and expectations for the Fed to slow the pace of rate hikes beginning in December. Together, the news helped lift the S&P 500 index 5.38% for the month.
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Inflation Pressures Cool Slightly
The market widely anticipates the Federal Reserve will hike rates by another 75 basis points on November 2. The question on the market’s mind is what they will do in December and what will be the terminal Fed Funds rate.
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Seeking Income
A plummet in bond yields in 2020 sent many investors on a search for yield. A relatively attractive dividend yield on stocks provided one source of income. As investors gravitated toward dividend paying stocks, equity indices such as the Russell 1000 Value index outperformed more growth oriented indices.
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Fed Higher for Longer
In a speech in Jackson Hole, Wyoming on August 26, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the importance of reducing inflation. He said the Fed would continue raising rates and hold them higher until it is confident inflation is under control. This pushed up market expectations for where the Fed Funds rate will be at the end of 2022, 2023 and 2024.
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Soft-ish Landing?
Markets turned generally more optimistic in July as the S&P 500 reported its strongest monthly returns since 2020, and growth meaningfully outperformed value. In bond markets, credit spreads declined for investment grade companies. The lower option adjusted spread (OAS) shows investors saw less credit risk for investment grade companies in July.
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Fighting Inflation
The Federal Reserve further expanded efforts to reduce inflation in June through a 75 basis point rate hike and hawkish Fed speak. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell was clear during Congressional testimony that the Fed is committed to price stability.