FEATURED MARKET DATA
Past Peak Inflation?
Headline CPI declined to 8.3% in April from 8.5% in March as energy prices eased. This helped fuel expectations that inflation has peaked. Inflation breakevens, a forward-looking measure of inflation, have mostly declined since peaking in March.
by Laura Fox FEATURED MARKET DATA
GDP and the Fed
While the 1.4% decline in U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter was a sharp reversal in growth trend, the underlying components display a much stronger picture.
by Laura Fox FEATURED MARKET DATA
Yield Curve Signals
The yield on 10-year Treasuries briefly dipped below 2-year Treasuries on Tuesday, March 29. When this inversion of the yield curve occurs for a sustained period of time, a recession has consistently followed in the next two years.
by Laura Fox FEATURED MARKET DATA
War, Inflation and the Fed
Consumer Price Inflation reached a 40-year high in January of 7.5%. Inflationary pressures increased in February as commodity prices such as oil, wheat, corn and metals rose on rising geopolitical risks, including the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
by Laura Fox FEATURED MARKET DATA
Economic Growth, Market Volatility
Economic data in January was largely in line with PMA’s forecast and market performance reflected our assessment that volatility may be high this year. Our base forecast was for strong economic growth and persistent inflation in 2022.
by Laura Fox FEATURED MARKET DATA
Corporate Earnings Drive Strong Returns
The S&P 500 rose 27% in 2021, marking a third consecutive year of double-digit gains. Price gains were supported by strong earnings growth for the year and continued healthy profit forecasts. The S&P 500 index’s valuation, measured by the price / earnings ratio, finished the year somewhat lower.
by Laura Fox FEATURED MARKET DATA
Stocks Down as Volatility Rose
Volatility trended up during November even as equity markets generally climbed most of the month. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), a measure of expected stock market volatility surged to 27. Inflation and supply chain concerns weighed on investors, contributing to volatility.
by Matt Orseske 
FEATURED MARKET DATA
Fed Expectations Pulled Forward
During October, markets priced in an earlier first rate hike by the Federal Reserve and a quicker initial path of hikes thereafter. Markets are pricing in at least two rate hikes in 2022 with the first in July. Rates in the 2-year to 5-year part of the Treasury yield curve rose abruptly as a result.
by Laura Fox
FEATURED MARKET DATA
Stock Valuations Level
U.S. equities fell in September with the S&P 500 index posting its first decline (-4.7%) since January (-1.0%). Factors that contributed to the weak performance included concerns around Fed tapering, the complex legislative environment, persistent supply constraints, rising energy costs and concerns about a potential default of Chinese property giant Evergrande.
by Laura Fox
FEATURED MARKET DATA
Retail Sales Lower in July
U.S. retail sales, a gauge for consumer spending fell 1.1% in July following an upwardly revised 0.7% increase in June. Underlying data suggests that consumers are beginning to curb spending on goods in favor of services following the reopening of the economy. Sales dropped across various categories including autos, clothing, sporting goods, and furniture.
by Laura Fox 